CFUW 136 - Rika

[zettai]

I already told Crow all this so you could just hear it from him, but do you want to hear it from me anyway?

Comments

[zettai]

About the same as I felt before, though Nita's responses seemed mostly reasonable except for the Accelerator logic I don't get. Parker implied I was a sheep when she answered Satoshi's question about who might get eaten, so that's definitely something to poke at. Check whether she's actually reasoned that I'm relatively clear of suspicion or she slipped up.

[moextispicy]

I asked. We'll see how it goes.

So, I asked Satoshi because I'm sure he's a wolf. I don't know for sure you're of that opinion or not, but I want your opinion on whether he's smart enough to say this if Parker's the wolf, knowing that at least two people think he's the wolf.

[zettai]

All of my reasoning has been based on the assumption that two wolf teams are Satoshi & Boyue and Laguna & Sanosuke, so I definitely agree with you there.

And I'm not sure. I was pretty positive Parker was a wolf up until that, but I'm not sure what he's trying to accomplish with that if she really is one.

[moextispicy]

I'm still leaning towards Tiffany and Nita, personally. They're also making similar arguments to Satoshi and Boyue, which is another reason. [shrugs] I guess we'll vote and see, since I'm not sure enough to try to make the effort to get them out. At least either way, the sheep will win.

[zettai]

I'd almost feel more secure letting Tiffany and Nita go out because even if they're sheep, they're gullible as hell. Siding with Satoshi and Parker? Really?

But Parker's the one I've seen actively slip up the most.

[moextispicy]

Seriously. Whichever of the teams actually are sheep, they're playing like idiots.

[shrugs] I'm fine being outvoted. It's just that my gut is saying Tiffany and Nita.

[zettai]

Geez! I was totally sure! Why did she have to go and say something that dumb if she was a sheep?!

[moextispicy]

[shrugs] It happens. We need to talk to Adam and Lincoln. I'm tempted to just open up a post of all the sheep teams.

[zettai]

I have a post open with Lincoln, and I also filtered him in to my post with Crow and Leo. Think I should do the same with Adam, or do you want to talk to him first?

Speaking of which, do you want in to the Crow and Leo post? I don't think it has anything I didn't tell you about, though.

[moextispicy]

Might be nice to look at, yeah. I'm mostly opening up a post with the entire voting record with sheep highlighted, so they can reference it and wolves can't. I would like to speak to Adam first, though.

[moextispicy]

Link Lincoln inside your post to this, would you? I don't want to contact too many people in public.

[zettai]

Done and done! My post with Crow and Leo is over here, by the way.

[moextispicy]

Sorry to bother you again, nipa~ Could you also link him here? I'd like to speak to him in private.

[moextispicy]

Oh,I almost forgot.

I was right and you were wrong, nipa~

[zettai]

S-S-Shut up!! It was an easy mistake to make!

[moextispicy]

But only one of us did.

[zettai]

Whatever! See if I care!

Anyway, how's your talk with Adam going? I mentioned it to Klavier and Lincoln, but he's the factor that makes me most nervous. He did vote on Tiffany & Nita in suspicion so hopefully it shouldn't be hard to sway him, but I've heard little to nothing out of him.

[moextispicy]

He only responded twice. He voted mostly to defend Parker, it looks like. I'm most nervous about him too, honestly. Especially since Tiffany's talking to him in private. If I were him, you and me would be second on my list as a suspicious team. I should ask Lincoln and Klavier to talk with him too.

[zettai]

I doubt it helped my case in his eyes that I voted on Parker, unfortunately... Well, nothing to do about it now.

That's a good idea, though I think they mentioned they won't be around as much today.

[moextispicy]

They did. I figured if they were around, they could? If not, I'll think of something else. Maybe going through and annotating my voting record with the logic of it all, and links to the threads that made me really suspicious of Satoshi and Tiffany. I saved the one that screamed wolves trying to spread misinformation and explain why their eating choice was brilliant to me already, in case anyone needed convincing.

Oh, and you should probably talk to him too. You'll be less convincing, but at least be available for any questions?

[moextispicy]

Hey Lambda, am I missing anything or making any mistakes?

There are two potential wolves we could have gotten: Takeru & Joe or Sanosuke & Laguna. Let's follow the scenarios.

If Takeru and Joe:
Adam: Voted in both times. Probably wolf.
Lambda: Voted out both times. Probably sheep.
Lincoln & Klavier: Voted out both times. Probably sheep.
Rika: Obviously sheep, since I'm in the same clue.
Boyue & Satoshi: Obviously sheep, since they're in the same clue.
Tiffany & Nita: Voted in when they voted. Probably wolves.
Wolves T&J: Takeru & Joe, Adam, and Tiffany & Nita.

If Sanosuke & Laguna:
Adam: Obviously sheep, since they're in the same clue.
Lambda: Either, but leaning sheep. She voted for someone else when they had more , and was
Lincoln & Klavier: Obviously sheep, because they're in the same clue as them.
Rika: Didn't vote. Could be either.
Boyue & Satoshi: Second to last ones to vote in ousting. Late votes in these kind of wolf dog piles are really really suspicious to me, and Sanosuke & Laguna's vote was the key to them not going up in the first round. Probably wolves.
Tiffany & Nita: Last ones to vote in ousting. Probably wolves who didn't want to vote their buddy out.
Wolves S&L: Sanosuke & Laguna, Satoshi & Boyue, Tiffany & Nita.

If you look at Tiffany and Nita in light of assuming that Sanosuke & Laguna are wolves, you get the rather interesting result that they failed to vote in the first suspicion round when Boyue & Satoshi are up. I can't say I've played with Nita before, but I have played with Tiffany, and as a sheep she really prefers to even up the vote. The fact that she didn't had me suspecting her from the very first round, especially with the way she was voting only when it didn't really matter.

The other reasons I've been figuring Wolves S&L is, well, their arguments have been making no sense. This is the one that particularly struck me as wolves trying to derail the sheep - eating people who play a lot is the most basic wolf tactic - it didn't need multiple conversations about it. I was more convinced of Boyue & Satoshi than I was Sanosuke & Laguna the second round, honestly.

Tiffany and Nita are trickier, just because they haven't been voting much, and their conversation was kept on innocuousness the entire time. I was leaning towards them anyway, but I've played with Tiffany. She's usually not this obtuse. If she's playing that dumb, there's a reason. Nita's playing better, but she suspects the one team who is least likely to be wolves by my vote counts.

Lambda, on the other hand, has been much more consistent. She voted to protect me in the first round, voted for the person who was by my lights second most suspicious in the second suspicion round, but was pretty clear that she didn't really suspect him and voted on the one who was most suspicious promptly. It could have been a coverup, but her actions are still less suspicious then Tiffany and Nita's. She derailed into one mistake, but in general her derailings have been much less potentially harmful than Tiffany and Nita's and Boyue and Satoshi's? If I listened to them, we'd still be completely lost. They aren't willing to have an opinion on whether it's the second or first round, make any logical conclusions out of that, and they were basically throwing chaos into the last round with the post opening and accusations of bullying the wolves into voting with sheep and what all. For the record, the people Crow was speaking to were: me, Lambda & Tatsuya, and Lincoln & Klavier.

[zettai]

That looks about right to me. On the off chance that Sanosuke/Laguna weren't wolves, your Joe/Takeru scenario sounds right to me--I don't suspect Klavier and Lincoln at all, and Adam has been very quiet and did do some weird backtracking in regards to his comment about eating Accelerator. But I'm pretty sure we're looking at a Sanosuke/Laguna and Satoshi/Boyue set-up, because of the reasons you mentioned, plus even as far back as the first ousting, Laguna was complaining about Accelerator putting up a record of the vote. Satoshi and Boyue have been inconsistent, asked weird questions, and were openly hostile to the safe sheep--you could argue that Crow started it, but it wasn't exactly a graceful reaction. Also, like I mentioned, assuming those two are wolves, it means there were no wolves voting on wolves in first day suspicion, with the added bonus of both of them jumping on Joe/Takeru at the last minute. I mean, it makes sense for Boyue and Satoshi to protect themselves, but like you said, we know that Laguna and Sanosuke's vote saved them from definitely going up.

[moextispicy]

Yeah, that whole thing with being bullied by Crow and Leo was just bizarre and stupid. Although I guess if they were going for pure distraction tactics, it wasn't totally ineffective. I'd've probably pushed Tiffany and Nita harder if I hadn't been distracted by catching up on that. [shrugs] I wouldn't even bother putting it on the table, considering all three have been striking me as suspicious since the first night, except I wanted to thoroughly cover both the scenarios where we know for a fact one of them is true.

[zettai]

No, I agree it's good to at least put on the table. Admittedly, I've been so gung ho about a Boyue/Satoshi and Laguna/Sanosuke tag team since around the second day that I hadn't given as much thought to alternatives as I could've. I do feel really strongly we're right on the money, though. But have things progressed any more with Adam?

[moextispicy]

Same.

Not at all. Klavier's in and out and he has a post with him, but it doesn't look like he's responding to him, either. Hopefully, he'll start responding closer to ousting.

It looks like Tiffany's dropped her post with me too. I was hoping to get some idea of where they were accusing this round. Her argument for you being a wolf was just inane - apparently since you voted for Takeru the first day, if he's a sheep you're a wolf.