CFUW 133 - Rika

[zettai]

Okay, I'm not sure this is the kind of reasoning I should post where the wolves can see it, so I'll do it here.

If it's not obvious enough by now, I don't think you're the wolf.

Comments

[moextispicy]

I don't think so, but I didn't want to take the chance. He's been pretty strongly of the opinion that you're a wolf and Kiyama isn't, while Ankh's in the other direction, so odds are he's the third wolf.

[zettai]

Yeah, it's definitely possible. Not 100% certain, but it doesn't seem too productive of Ankh to play along with it if he's a wolf considering he could easily get me out here if he wanted to and win. Does Accelerator seem to have a solid reason to be fixated on me as a wolf?

[moextispicy]

No, just thinking that all of Kiyama's stupidity was stupidity rather than suspicion.

...Hey Lambda, I just noticed something. Look at the first day's vote, highlighted with the assumptions that you and Hazama are sheep and Kiyama's a wolf.

Desmond, 5 votes: Kokonoe, Accelerator, Toshiko, Kiyama, Klavier
Lambdadelta, 2 votes: Mayumi, Ankh
Kiyama, 4 votes: Rika, Parker, Lambdadelta, Hazama
no vote: Desmond

[zettai]

... That's certainly interesting.

If Accelerator really is a wolf, though, I wonder why all three would put their vote on the same sheep. It's true that looking at the final stats it wouldn't have been possible for them to keep Kiyama from going up no matter what, but... This would be easier to figure out if there were a record of what order the overall votes came in, but I'm not seeing one in the ousting post--most people didn't make note of it.

[moextispicy]

Mi- ...I'm so used to my notes being in order that I hadn't actually noticed that it wasn't. I cribbed from Accelerator's, since I wasn't there and hadn't bothered catching up before he offered his.

[shrugs] The obvious possible answer is that they figured piling up on someone who wasn't there was the best way to distract from Kiyama. And I doubt they'd want to risk him going up against you, since I doubt he'd've survived against anyone who could offer a decent defense. I wouldn't consider it firm evidence, but I'd definitely question Accelerator pretty hard on that tomorrow.

[zettai]

If Accelerator is the wolf, I don't think you'll be the one eaten. But I'll remember that anyway.

... Looks like our most useful player is back.

[moextispicy]

[...this is not a happy Rika]

I'll go work on Accelerator some more. Getting Hazama not to screw things up if he feels like it will be tricky.

[zettai]

He's definitely not the type to be reasoned with.

[moextispicy]

And if Hatter gains from a wolf win, I don't put it past her to cheat if it's a random choice.

[zettai]

I could believe it. That would explain why we got the worst possible set-up from a one-out-of-three chance on the second ousting.

[moextispicy]

I have a couple contingency plans if I can't persuade either of them, but I don't know if they'll work. Do you trust me?

[zettai]

[a smile breaks out across her face at that]

On this kind of thing? I certainly do.

[moextispicy]

...It's not going to be nice.

[zettai]

... [sobers a bit at that]

Even by my definition?

[moextispicy]

Not even by yours, I think.

[zettai]

... It's okay. I'm probably up for it.

[moextispicy]

Sorry.

[zettai]

I don't want you to apologize to me.