CFUW 133 - Rika

[zettai]

Okay, I'm not sure this is the kind of reasoning I should post where the wolves can see it, so I'll do it here.

If it's not obvious enough by now, I don't think you're the wolf.

Comments

[moextispicy]

I noticed. Any particular reason?

[zettai]

Yeah, a couple. I've become more convinced since I found out that Kiyama was a wolf, though.

First of all, I think if you were a wolf you wouldn't have let me sit out the first ousting. You were the first one to vote overall, right? And you cast your vote on Kiyama. It's definitely not unheard of to cast your vote on a fellow wolf to throw off suspicion, but from my experience the first vote tends to get some amount of momentum rolling, which made his chances of going up higher. He voted on you in both suspicion and ousting, as well. Either you guys are very coordinated about this or you're not on the same side.

Moreover, Kokonoe's defense has been pretty flimsy, mostly centering around baselessly yet aggressively accusing you. When I asked her why she voted on Desmond in the ousting, she said, "I have no use for a useless sheep." Granted, I suppose the likelihood that he was a sheep after a landslide like that wasn't too terribly high, but the confident phrasing seemed off to me. Besides, if she was so positive he was a sheep, why did she vote for him regardless? She could just have been that convinced that I'm a wolf and have believed there were two sheep up for ousting, but it still seems weird to be so confident at that point.

[moextispicy]

[thinking] What do you think of her relationship with Hazama? I assume she's going to defend herself with the idea that she would have eaten him if she were a wolf.

[zettai]

[shrug] I still don't know that he isn't a wolf, but assuming he's a sheep, she could have kept him alive for the very sake of that defense.

He could be a wolf given the fact that he hasn't been eaten and he seems to be defending Kokonoe right now, but his behavior's been so blatantly wolf-like that to be honest it's hard for me to actually imagine him as one.

[moextispicy]

[giggles] Same here. I suppose he could be a wolf who decided that the best way to be a wolf would be to act so over the top as a wolf that no one could buy him as a wolf, but that's getting a little complicated.

How do you think the voting will go? Since you were concerned about it.

[zettai]

I think I'm going to get voted out if I were to go up. Kiyama being forced to play in public cleared a lot of suspicion from him, to the point where even I wasn't sure he was a wolf for a while, despite the fact that I guess the landslide on Desmond should've made it obvious that it wasn't him. Obviously the wolves will be gunning for me, too, so I don't think it would exactly work out in my favor.

As for your round, I had been thinking that Kokonoe would get voted out, but I thought about it a little more when you mentioned you thought it could go wrong. Here's how I think that would go:

Accelerator - Kokonoe
Hazama - You, and since I don't think he's a wolf, that leaves two more wolves to work on purposefully getting you out. --Oh, or only one if Accelerator is the wolf. Even if he is a wolf, I don't think he would vote on you.
Ankh - ??? I have no real reading on him yet. I have no idea which way he'd vote if he's a sheep. Could be a wolf.
Parker - If she's a sheep, she seemed decently convinced by Accelerator's reasoning, so I think she might vote on Kokonoe. But could be a wolf.
Kiyama - Definite wolf.
Me - Kokonoe

So I think a lot of it depends on who the third wolf is, which I still don't have particularly strong suspicions about.

[moextispicy]

You're right, it's going to be tricky. Having three wolves still in means there's a lot of room for them to make me look like a wolf, and people are undersuspicious of people who haven't made an appearance in a clue. I could see any of the three as a wolf, though I agree with you that Accelerator will try to keep me in even if he is a wolf. I'm hoping the clue gives us a better idea.

What do you think of the overarching game between Hatter and the angels?

[zettai]

I just sure hope Hazama isn't the safe sheep, because that would be like the least helpful clue ever.

Pretty much just what I told Accelerator. I think it makes Hatter more invested in the wolves' victory than a neutral game master rightfully should be.

[moextispicy]

I suspect it will be for that reason alone, but I could be wrong.

If you were a wolf, do you think that would affect your play at all?

[zettai]

I've never been a proper wolf before so I can't say from experience, but in a regular game? Maybe not.

But with what's at stake in this game... I can't imagine I'd be playing quite as hard as I usually do. I don't intend on letting Hatter live, and I'd hardly allow myself to be used as a tool to do so.

[moextispicy]

[considering you thoughtfully]

You're taking your promise more seriously than I expected.

[zettai]

What?

[moextispicy]

How come you want to kill Hatter?

[zettai]

[SOME TIME AFTER THE HISSY FIT OF THE CENTURY and away from the public eye]

... Sorry.

[moextispicy]

Why?

[zettai]

Regardless of the fact that you're wrong, and the fact that I'm frustrated, that wasn't fair of me.

[moextispicy]

Why? It's true enough.

[zettai]

[shakes head] You're just playing the way you feel is best. Wrong or not, you shouldn't have to apologize for it. And I'm in no position to complain.

[moextispicy]

[this is a flat laugh] I didn't even think I'd be upset by killing you. I kept half expecting you to sacrifice me for an advantage in the game, somehow. But you didn't, and delaying another round to put myself up to vote first just left me in the same position in the end.

[zettai]

... You know? I didn't think a game like this could get to me either.

No matter how this game ends, it doesn't even matter. I'm going to kill Hatter no matter what.

[moextispicy]

I guess it's a surprise for us both.

I have a couple of ideas on that, if you can't normally. The shepherd can usually see everything, so let's talk after, okay?

[zettai]

[giggle] Yeah, that works.

[moextispicy]

[...sighs] Let's play, and get this over with then.

What kind of evidence would you say points towards Kiyama being a wolf?

[zettai]

He's been fairly quiet, so I'll admit it's hard to get much concrete on him. I suppose there's the suspicion he cast on you since the second day. You could argue the second days' votes in the ousting didn't matter as much because two sheep went up for vote anyway, but each vote in suspicion was vital, since it was a complete 3-3-3 tie. I know this is rich coming from someone who voted for Mayumi, but I really just didn't want to see you up for vote, and by the time the vote was tied, that was impossible to reliably do since I had put my initial vote on Mayumi and moving it to Kokonoe would've left you undoubtedly up for vote. I preferred to take my chances on the event that a coin flip would lead to a Mayumi-Kokonoe match-up. He didn't vote for you in last night's ousting, sure, but by the point he voted anyone with half a brain knew how voting would end up on that so he was probably just going with the flow.

There's also the fact that Hatter had to egg him on into playing the game. At first a public showing like that would seem like confirmation that he's a sheep. But Hatter wants the wolves to win this, right? I can't imagine why he would do something that would blatantly clear suspicion on a sheep. He also didn't lift a finger when Hazama completely quit the game, and since I think Hazama is a sheep--and so do you unless that was another case of you leading me on, but I doubt it--that's pretty telling about what Hatter will and won't do. ... Of course there's always the chance he just left Hazama alone because no one cares about him, but. In retrospect, it seems odd for him to go out of his way to motivate a sheep.

I know that's not much substantial, but it's hard to get anything concrete on someone who stays mostly in the background. That's why I realize I'm the easier target.

[moextispicy]

Mmm. I started suspecting him again by the time ousting started last night for those reasons, among others, and it got me to look his original fuss with Hatter over again more closely. If he had acted even a touch less stupid last night, I wouldn't have any doubt at all.

Of the third clue, who do you think the wolf is?