CFUW 133 - Rika

[zettai]

Okay, I'm not sure this is the kind of reasoning I should post where the wolves can see it, so I'll do it here.

If it's not obvious enough by now, I don't think you're the wolf.

Comments

[zettai]

He's been fairly quiet, so I'll admit it's hard to get much concrete on him. I suppose there's the suspicion he cast on you since the second day. You could argue the second days' votes in the ousting didn't matter as much because two sheep went up for vote anyway, but each vote in suspicion was vital, since it was a complete 3-3-3 tie. I know this is rich coming from someone who voted for Mayumi, but I really just didn't want to see you up for vote, and by the time the vote was tied, that was impossible to reliably do since I had put my initial vote on Mayumi and moving it to Kokonoe would've left you undoubtedly up for vote. I preferred to take my chances on the event that a coin flip would lead to a Mayumi-Kokonoe match-up. He didn't vote for you in last night's ousting, sure, but by the point he voted anyone with half a brain knew how voting would end up on that so he was probably just going with the flow.

There's also the fact that Hatter had to egg him on into playing the game. At first a public showing like that would seem like confirmation that he's a sheep. But Hatter wants the wolves to win this, right? I can't imagine why he would do something that would blatantly clear suspicion on a sheep. He also didn't lift a finger when Hazama completely quit the game, and since I think Hazama is a sheep--and so do you unless that was another case of you leading me on, but I doubt it--that's pretty telling about what Hatter will and won't do. ... Of course there's always the chance he just left Hazama alone because no one cares about him, but. In retrospect, it seems odd for him to go out of his way to motivate a sheep.

I know that's not much substantial, but it's hard to get anything concrete on someone who stays mostly in the background. That's why I realize I'm the easier target.

[moextispicy]

Mmm. I started suspecting him again by the time ousting started last night for those reasons, among others, and it got me to look his original fuss with Hatter over again more closely. If he had acted even a touch less stupid last night, I wouldn't have any doubt at all.

Of the third clue, who do you think the wolf is?

[zettai]

Still not sure. Went back and looked at the voting and:

Accelerator:
Suspicion: Desmond (second)
Ousting: Desmond (second)
Suspicion: Kokonoe (first)
Ousting: Mayumi (first)
Suspicion: Kokonoe (first)
Ousting: Kokonoe (first)

Ankh:
Suspicion: Me (second)
Ousting: Desmond (seventh)
Suspicion: Mayumi (second? votes were all screwed up due to switching)
Ousting: Mayumi (fourth)
Suspicion: Rika (fourth)
Ousting: Kokonoe (fifth)

The two sort of look like they're on opposite ends of the scale to me: Accelerator seems overconfident in all of his votes whereas Ankh seems overly bandwagon-y in all of them. Accelerator is almost always one of the first to throw in a vote, whereas Ankh is often the last or close to last. I can't say for sure which I think is necessarily more suspicious until I hear out their rationale. I've seen what Accelerator's had to say concerning you during the oustings, but other than that I've barely talked to either of them at all. As it is, I'd lean towards Ankh, but again I haven't talked to him and have no idea what he's thinking, whereas with Accelerator I at least have some idea of where he's coming from. I think the voting tonight might help push me in one direction or another on the off-chance I don't get voted out and we lose this.

[moextispicy]

I wish Ankh weren't always so quiet. He seems to default into getting voted out in the last rounds just because no one knows enough to say he's innocent or guilty.

[zettai]

Have you talked to him this game?

[moextispicy]

[shakes her head] I should.

...Hey Lambda, you've seen more people than me. How stupid can a person be?

[zettai]

Huh?

[moextispicy]

Kiyama's defense is just that bad. [looks like she's debating between headache and amusement]

[zettai]

I honestly don't understand what you were trying to say just now. Seen them where?

[zettai]

... Oh, wait.

You're trying to say he's just that stupid.

[moextispicy]

[giggles] Yes. He still hasn't even figured out that saying he has to play hard to protect his friend isn't the same as being a sheep.

...But. No one's that stupid.

[zettai]

"No one" could be a stretch, but... I think I might see what you're getting at.

[moextispicy]

Okay, so he's not reaching the epic types of stupidity.

[zettai]

It's possible.

[moextispicy]

Give him more time with Hatter; he'll have opportunities.

Hey Lambda, what's your thoughts on Kiyama telling me that he thinks Ankh is the wolf from the third clue?

[zettai]

Depends. What's his rationale?

[moextispicy]

I'll quote. "He's pretty against Accelerator and, from what I know, he's been pretty damn helpful with winning against the wolves. Giving me excuses like how Accelerator is experienced and smart. And how you're still alive despite what kind of game we're in."

[shrug] Trying to get decent arguments out of him is annoying. I should mention I told Accelerator before getting that that I thought you were innocent and Kiyama was a wolf, so I think there might be a crack in Accelerator versus Ankh if I can figure it out.

[zettai]

Hm... So Kiyama's gunning for Ankh but with flimsy rationale--not that the latter part's anything new, apparently. What have Ankh and Accelerator themselves had to say? And any idea what the breakdown of votes on the suspicion poll is right now, by the way?

[moextispicy]

There's two on you, and three on Kiyama. I don't know how it actually breaks down, but judging by our conversation I am guessing that Accelerator and Kiyama voted for you, and me, Ankh, and you voted on Kiyama. I haven't hit either of them up for their defenses yet, though.

[reluctant pause] I don't know how much of this you know, but you need to for game purposes. [very factual, covering any emotional response with that] Assuming I'm right, and we make it through the night, one of us will be the safe sheep taken anyway. If it's me, you should know that last time we were in one of Hatter's games, Accelerator made a deal with Hatter that he could kill someone else in my place, and proceeded to use the fact that I had been taken out by a wolf, and the fact that he would never kill a little girl, as evidence that he could not be a wolf.

[zettai]

Do you think he'd try to rely on the same trick twice?

[moextispicy]

I don't think so, but I didn't want to take the chance. He's been pretty strongly of the opinion that you're a wolf and Kiyama isn't, while Ankh's in the other direction, so odds are he's the third wolf.

[zettai]

Yeah, it's definitely possible. Not 100% certain, but it doesn't seem too productive of Ankh to play along with it if he's a wolf considering he could easily get me out here if he wanted to and win. Does Accelerator seem to have a solid reason to be fixated on me as a wolf?

[moextispicy]

No, just thinking that all of Kiyama's stupidity was stupidity rather than suspicion.

...Hey Lambda, I just noticed something. Look at the first day's vote, highlighted with the assumptions that you and Hazama are sheep and Kiyama's a wolf.

Desmond, 5 votes: Kokonoe, Accelerator, Toshiko, Kiyama, Klavier
Lambdadelta, 2 votes: Mayumi, Ankh
Kiyama, 4 votes: Rika, Parker, Lambdadelta, Hazama
no vote: Desmond

[zettai]

... That's certainly interesting.

If Accelerator really is a wolf, though, I wonder why all three would put their vote on the same sheep. It's true that looking at the final stats it wouldn't have been possible for them to keep Kiyama from going up no matter what, but... This would be easier to figure out if there were a record of what order the overall votes came in, but I'm not seeing one in the ousting post--most people didn't make note of it.

[moextispicy]

Mi- ...I'm so used to my notes being in order that I hadn't actually noticed that it wasn't. I cribbed from Accelerator's, since I wasn't there and hadn't bothered catching up before he offered his.

[shrugs] The obvious possible answer is that they figured piling up on someone who wasn't there was the best way to distract from Kiyama. And I doubt they'd want to risk him going up against you, since I doubt he'd've survived against anyone who could offer a decent defense. I wouldn't consider it firm evidence, but I'd definitely question Accelerator pretty hard on that tomorrow.